The Ship Model Forum

Thread split and put into Off-Topic.

My opinion on hedge funds is that they are money betting against the economy. Along with the sub-prime (sub-intellegent) loan fiasco have cause the recent economic tanking event. I wouldn't invest in Russia even for 100% interest. Iceland will probably go along with the EU bailout. The problem is that Wall Street will probably get more wreckless in the next few years because they will think they are entitled to a bailout whenever they screw up.

Iceland tried to be a hedge fund and lost. They we caught up in the Yen Carry Trade. Next to 0% yen loans from Japan were deposited in the three big Iceland banks for the much higher interest rate. Then the banks went wild buying up half the UK.
The UK savers also went to Icesave for big interest rates of return. Now didn't our parents tell us that higher return often goes hand in hand with higher risk. The UK and Iceland are now in a mini Cod War only over Icesave deposits this time around!
Hard to say how this shakes out, the IMF is looking at a rescue plan for Iceland. The Russia 4 billion Euros loan is still on the table. Iceland Krona has greatly devalued making imports expensive and difficult to stock. I think Iceland debts equal at least 4 times GDP or maybe it was 12 times. Whichever it is, they are going to have to catch alot of Cod fish to balance that out.
My last visit to Iceland was 2 years ago. They wallowed in their new found wealth at that time. Immigration was big as Icelanders were above most ordinary jobs by that point. As one old Icelander is quoted in the Times : "They will have to learn to get their hands dirty again". Easy come, easy go! :big_grin:

Bob B.

I think they will have to indenture themselves to 5 centuries of servitude to pay that off.

Maybe they could pay us off in lutefisk.

Except Iceland has fewer people to pay off that debt than Raleigh, North Carolina.

$100 billion? Not much compared to what we spent a couple weeks ago.

Considering Iceland went broke on American mortgage default swaps, I suppose it would be ironic if we Americans take over Iceland and find ourselves footing the bill for the interest on their $100 billion dollar debt. BTW, if your think American commercial, personal and federal debt is bad, each Icelandic person's share in Iceland's debt is 4 times worse.

The USA would take Iceland on as a non declared part of the United States before they let a Russian military presence exist there.

Not sure how Icelanders would react, but if it meant being on Uncle Sugar's welfare rolls, they might not complain :big_grin:

Bob B.

[quote="Lesforan"]Certainly an airfield would be an important part of a naval base. The Russians could put it to good use as a base for their patrol bombers, and as a refueling stop that would lessen the need for in-air refueling. The abandoned US base would surely have included an airfield.

It would really help them establish a naval presence in the North Atlantic.

I don't think this is going to happen. From a monetary standpoint, it would be cheaper for the US to subsidize Iceland than to counter a Russian naval foothold in Iceland.

Maybe this is what Iceland had in mind all along.[/quote]

For Russia to gain a foothold in the Atlantic at the expence of NATO would indeed be a coup of the highest order.
Dave Wooley

Certainly an airfield would be an important part of a naval base. The Russians could put it to good use as a base for their patrol bombers, and as a refueling stop that would lessen the need for in-air refueling. The abandoned US base would surely have included an airfield.

It would really help them establish a naval presence in the North Atlantic.

I don't think this is going to happen. From a monetary standpoint, it would be cheaper for the US to subsidize Iceland than to counter a Russian naval foothold in Iceland.

Maybe this is what Iceland had in mind all along.

[quote="chuck"][quote="bengtsson"]In this day and age, wouldn't airfield rights be far and away more important than a naval port? Iceland is hard to sink. :big_grin:

Bob B.[/quote]


But apparently vulnerable to being made a mission kill.[/quote]

Keflavik was the main base for the US presence on Iceland but was vacated in late 2006.
Now Icelands airport but could fulfill a similar stop over, refueling and monitoring function for the Russians.
Dave Wooley

[quote="bengtsson"]In this day and age, wouldn't airfield rights be far and away more important than a naval port? Iceland is hard to sink. :big_grin:

Bob B.[/quote]


But apparently vulnerable to being made a mission kill.

In this day and age, wouldn't airfield rights be far and away more important than a naval port? Iceland is hard to sink. :big_grin:

Bob B.

[quote="chuck"]Excuse me, where in Iceland can one build a naval base???? Iceland for all practical purposes have no major natural harbors....... :wave_1: It only has a few exposed anchorages.[/quote]

Breidafjordur Bay ! :wave_1:
Dave Wooley

Excuse me, where in Iceland can one build a naval base???? Iceland for all practical purposes have no major natural harbors....... :wave_1: It only has a few exposed anchorages.

It seems awfully farfetched to me that they could or would grant base rights to the Russians. If such a wild scenario ever were seriously postulated by Iceland, the West would finally step up, per Lesforan's observation.

That's right.

A Russian naval base in Iceland would effectively expand the "Northern Bastion" strategy of deployment of boomers.

Russia may lose every penny, but the value of a iceland base cannot be underestimated.

it is worth its weight in gold...

Ric

Both your points above are true Chuck. [but I'm sure you will argue that point with me! :wave_1: ] The government of Russia is in the Black big time. If the stockmarket tanks, well, then investors in stocks take a beating, but the stockmarket in Russia is not the Russian economy. They have huge reserves, we do not.
My sources , BBC, said that Iceland received some 4 billion odd Euros as a loan to shore up Iceland's reserves. Whether that helps much, is in doubt, Iceland was a "Hedge Fund" pretending to be a nation. The Hedge Fund collapsed, now they must go back to being a nation. But they are to all intents and purposes INSOLVENT. Their liabilities after taking over the Iceland banking system are many times over the whole Iceland GDP. No way they can avoid complete default, right now they are all but cut off from the world financial system. Hard times!
As to base rights?? No way, there is no credible report of that, not even in Russian news sources. This ain't happening.
The EU did stiff Iceland. Norway looked to be moving to help, but backed out. Why? Most likely they asked to look at Iceland's books, once they saw the extent of Iceland's debt, they ran for cover! Russia may lose every penny on this deal.
If we want to fear for anybody right now, it is us in the USA. We do not have reserves, we have 10trillion in debt, growing larger by the moment.