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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 12:42 pm 
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Los Angeles Times wrote:
Air Force may shrink its F-15 fleet
Dozens of the older fighter jets, which are used to protect the U.S., may be permanently grounded because of suspected structural flaws.
By Julian E. Barnes
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

January 9, 2008

WASHINGTON — The Air Force will probably order dozens of its F-15 fighter jets permanently grounded because of crucial structural flaws, significantly reducing the number of planes available to protect the United States, officials said Tuesday.

After one of the jets broke apart during a simulated dogfight in November, Air Force officials grounded the entire F-15 fleet, nearly 700 planes in all, fearing such a defect. The newest versions of the fighter jets were allowed to resume flying shortly afterward, but 440 of the older model F-15s have remained out of service.

The Air Force plans to allow about 260 of the remaining grounded planes to return to duty today. But about 180 more will remain idle because of suspected structural flaws.

"Many of them may never fly again," a senior Air Force officer said. The officer, like others interviewed for this article, spoke on condition of anonymity because results of the investigation are not due to be made public until today.

Long the nation's most sophisticated front-line fighters, the F-15 are gradually being replaced; many are up to 30 years old. The Air Force still relies on F-15s to protect the continental U.S. and to fly combat missions abroad. Newer model F-15Es are used in combat in Iraq and Afghanistan and were the first of the grounded planes to resume flying after the mishap in November.

The problems with the F-15, Air Force officials argue, have increased the need to purchase more F-22s, swift and stealthy but expensive new fighter planes. Air Force officials characterized the grounding of the F-15s as even more serious than if the Army had to take a large portion of its battle tanks out of service in Iraq.

"This is grave; we've had a heart attack," said a senior Air Force official. "Two hundred of our air superiority aircraft are on the ground, and we are acting like it is business as usual."

An investigation of the Nov. 2 crash shows the F-15 that broke apart over eastern Missouri had a fault in a crucial support component called a longeron, a structural beam that serves as part of the spine of the aircraft. F-15s have four longerons around the cockpit.

Air Force officials have not yet learned how a defective beam came to be installed in the plane, which was manufactured in 1980. But Air Force officials emphasized that the age of the airframe, combined with the faulty part, puts the older F-15s at risk.

"This airplane broke in half because of a fatigue crack," the officer said.

The Air Force has found cracks in nine of about 180 planes that remain grounded, but it thinks more have faulty structural beams.

The newer F-15Es are used in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the 440 older fighters -- models F-15A through F-15D -- are used for domestic patrols.

Since the fleet was grounded, the Air Force has used F-16s for patrols. Starting today, the Air Force will use a combination of F-16s and F-15s.

On average, the F-15s are 25 years old and have encountered other structural problems that have forced redesign programs.

Another senior Air Force official said the problems with the F-15 showed an "enhanced imperative" to purchase additional F-22 aircraft. The Air Force has said it needs 381 F-22s, although the Pentagon has approved the acquisition of only 183.

"We have to examine not only if we need the full 381 aircraft, but do we need them faster?" the Air Force official said.

The F-22 has cost billions to develop since it was conceived in the 1980s and remains a controversial plane. Critics have long charged that it is overpriced and was designed for a Cold War threat that no longer exists.

But Air Force officials say the plane is required to retain control of the air and protect American ground forces.

Skeptics of military spending have accused the Air Force of using the F-15's problems as a justification for purchasing more F-22s. The Air Force, these critics contend, should do more to examine whether the F-15s can be effectively repaired.

But in an interview, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said he thought the Air Force faced genuine issues because of its aging fleet. Gates said that replacing the fleet of in-air refueling tankers should be addressed first but that new fighters are a legitimate need.

"The Air Force's top priority has to be the replacement of the tanker fleet, but I think the notion that the Air Force is somehow pumping up the F-15 problem, I just don't believe that for a second. I think it's a real concern," Gates said.

Air Force officials said they thought some of the F-15s that remained grounded might be able to return to duty after repairs. But some senior officials have raised questions about how effective the F-15s will be after they are fixed. Some officials believe that repairs to stiffen the aircraft could reduce its capability as a fighter plane.

"Do you try to patch a 25-year-old airplane that has been patched and patched and patched?" another senior Air Force official asked. "After the repairs, it will not be the same aircraft it was before."

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 5:35 pm 
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See what happens when you build them too light.
Willy M, the WWII German aircraft designer said "build it light, if it breaks strengthen that part!"
60yrs later they still do the same thing. Which is a problem! Computer designed bah cost cutting is the main cause now. As long as the public lets them get away by wasting taxes......................
Tony


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 6:18 pm 
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Wrong HMAS, this is what happens when you use an aircraft in a very punishing environment for more than 30 years. Willie's aircraft were usually lucky to last for 5 years in a much less punishing environment, by the way MiG had the same idea and AFIK still use it. The AF is continuing the grounding of around 150 of the oldest F-15 still in service, less than 1/2 of the A-D still in service. These jets were built before 1982 or 1983. My best guess is these aircraft had in excess of 10,000 flying hours! My fiscal 1978 F-15C (#21) had in excess of 5,000 hours on it when I last saw her in 1992, last I saw she was flying for the Oregon ANG a couple years ago. I'm impressed at their service life, granted if they had built her heavier this may not be an issue. General Dynamics and MiG probably had a better idea in build them simpler, the F-16 has been in service nearly as long as the F-15 and the MiG-21 has been around forever is seems. The MiG is less capable than most anything else in frontline service with the major powers but is still an effective aircraft. The F-4 (God love her) is still in service almost as long as the MiG and as capable in trained hands but she is still outclassed by the last 2 generations of fighters. I honestly believe America got more than it's monie's worth out of the F-15.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 8:02 pm 
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I know this is simplistic, but why not just build more F-15's? The tooling has to be present as they are still in production. The F-15 is a proven entity, as is the F-16.

Just make more?

Ric

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 8:10 pm 
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I'm pretty sure the tooling was destroyed. I know that Grumman made a point of destroying the F-14 tooling when the Navy canceled the last F-14D order.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 8:22 pm 
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I think we have got our moneys worth on the F-15. My all time favorite bird BTW. While many will look at the good old F-4, you have to remember that the 15 pulls some serious G's and stress the airframe much more than the the Phantom. I have seen some of these pilots play and they are bending that airframe with each turn. The F-4 may have logged more miles, but they were highway miles, the F-15 is all off road miles.

I have been watching the F-22 and am impressed with it's abilities. But I suspect it will not endure the same workload the F-15 did.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:19 pm 
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The F-15 air frames are old.

If the USAF wants to bulster the number of aircraft now the best thing for them to do would be to buy F/A-18F from Boeing and sell them to the Navy when the F-35A enters production. Its already in production and can use most of the Air Forces munitions.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 11:24 pm 
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Seasick wrote:
The F-15 air frames are old.

If the USAF wants to bulster the number of aircraft now the best thing for them to do would be to buy F/A-18F from Boeing and sell them to the Navy when the F-35A enters production. Its already in production and can use most of the Air Forces munitions.


The performance envelope of the F/A-18F doesn't match those of F-15.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 1:49 am 
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Seasick wrote:
If the USAF wants to bulster the number of aircraft now the best thing for them to do would be to buy F/A-18F from Boeing and sell them to the Navy when the F-35A enters production.


Geez, that'd be like trading a tank's cannon in for a machine gun. Performance envelope aside, the electronic abilities of the bug, super or not, come nowhere near to what the F-15 can do.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:06 am 
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Werner wrote:
I'm pretty sure the tooling was destroyed. I know that Grumman made a point of destroying the F-14 tooling when the Navy canceled the last F-14D order.



It is not destroyed. The production line is still open to produce F-15K for Korea, which as far as airframe goes is identical to F-15E. F-15E is said to retain the complete air combat capability and performance of the F-15C. F-15E/K is also able to switch between standard F100 engine hitherto used on all American F-15s and the alternative F110 engines used in last production blocks of F-16CJ, thus allowing any new production F-15 to stream line logistic chain by sharing engine with latest blocks of F-16CJ in a way existing F-15C can not do.

There is also a parallel production line that still exists in Japan. It produced F-15J, which for all practical purposes is identical to F-15C, missing only the never used nuclear release equipment on American F-15C and substituting a few minor pieces of ECM equipment for their Japanese equivalent.

Its feasibility not withstanding, any further F-15 production is unlikely to find favor with the Air Force because it can only bring the Air Force more headache over the issue it really cares about, which it to convince the congress to give it more money to keep the F/A-22 production going after 2009. Never mind the F-15 production line, the F-22 production line is scheduled to be closed about 2011-2012. I think the decision to ground so many F-15 can not have been completely free from any influence by the Air Force's grand strategy to procure more F/A-22s.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 2:56 am 
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Just makes the UCAVs time draw near that much faster....

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 3:08 am 
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Incidentally, the Japanese are not impressed by the potential of UAVs to supercede the F-22. Indeed they are so concerned that the US would shut down the F-22 production line without selling them any F-22s that they've embarked upon a seldom mentioned, but rather significant, program to build their own F-22 class heavy, twin engined stealth fighter in corporation with the French. The stealthiness test airframe has just been shipped to France for radar stealthiness tests. It looks a little like the F-22, but is definitely not a copy of the F-22. Photos of the prototype, taken inside the French radar test chamber, can be found in the current Air Power Magazine. If the French are involved, then the odds are high that after the US shuts down the F-22 production line after a mere 180 planes or so, substantial numbers of new F-22 class stealthy fighters will continue to find their way into the hands of a variety of air forces around the world.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 12:35 pm 
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The tooling does in fact still exist, as stated earlier the line is still open building new F-15K for Korea. That being said I don't think the AF will build any more -15 for itself. It's an old airframe/design and like it or not there are several aircraft that outclass it now. Additionally I don't see the AF or any other service in the American military willingly accepting a 5th generation or earlier aircraft. I just read in the Air Force Association's newsletter where the AF is in the process of manufacturing new longerons for the 9 jets found so far with the most serious damage. The main issues here are the age of the jets involved, time to manufacture the parts (up to 120 days each) and the expense of the repair $200,000 each. The repair will also require a special jig to be produced to hold the aircraft during the repair. Additionally since the jets in question are danger grounded the depot team will have to travel to each location to perform the repairs which will require 42 days for each aircraft due to the nature of the required repair. At this point we're approaching the same argument that occurred when the F-15 was first being brought on line regarding upgrading the F-4. The AF has delayed recapitalizing it's fleet long enough...some say too long but that is beside the point.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 6:39 pm 
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We are in a unique situation... the Air Force and Navy require major capital investment to maintain the current level of capability, which is already somewhat short of it's obligations. Meanwhile, the land forces have been severely used and require a similar investment. Meanwhile, the government at home has become so fat, taxes so high and future domestic obligations so huge that it is unlikely that the rehabilitation of the armed forces will get anything like the funds it requires.

A possible ray of light would be the replacement of the income tax with a consumption tax; the US "gray" economy is estimated at up to 25% of the reported numbers. A consumption tax would draw these earnings into the tax pool.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 9:30 pm 
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Options:
1. Restart production of the F-15 for the USAF.
2. Buy more F-22 than planned.
3. Push forward the F-35A production date.
4. Supplement the Air Force with F/A-18F in the strike roll.
5. Start a remanufacturing program for the F-15.

1. Is not acceptable because the new aircraft will be obsolete before they ware out.
2. Is not acceptable because of the high cost of the F-22.
3. Accelerating the F-35A will drive up its cost.
4. The Super-Bug has its limitations, but is already in production and has the lowest cost of all options.
5. This is possible, and would most likely have to be done in house by the air force in the same manner the Navy is repairing airframes of F/A-18C that have been dammaged by hard(er than normal)landings.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 10, 2008 11:28 pm 
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Seasick wrote:
3. Accelerating the F-35A will drive up its cost.


Furthermore, the F-15s that were grounded were primarily air defense fighters, and the F-35 ain't anywhere near an air defense fighter.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 3:28 pm 
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Accident report findings have been posted online; documents and video clips:
http://www.acc.af.mil/aibreports/
Each video's about 25 megs.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 9:09 pm 
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If you want an "out of the box" solution, how about license building the newest variant Flanker airframes, put on US engines, avionics and weapons... and fly away the most advanced fighter short of an F-22. You start with zero hours, have an advanced airframe and keep the "made in America" label" (well, assembled in America).

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 10:21 pm 
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The Su-27 thing won't work. mating different technologies that have to work at military standards is difficult. It can be done but don't expect to save money. The USAF would do better building a stripped down version of the F-22 with a less expensive avionics suite. The avionics is where the cost is. The Su-27 thing wouldn't be ready in less than three years anyway.

Just as a point of reference:
If you were wondering what the big deal about the cost of the F-22A is; its the unit cost is so high.
Unit cost in 2007:

F-22A: $137.7 million, in 2007
F/A-18E: $57.0 million, in 2007
F/A-18F: $59.0 million, in 2007
F-15K: $100 million, in 2006.
F/A-18C: $35 million, in 2003. -- $38 million adjusted to 2006 dollars.
F-16E "Block 60" $18.8 million, in 1998. -- $23 million adjusted to 2006 dollars.
F-15E $43.0 million, in 1998. -- $52 million adjusted to 2006 dollars.
F-15C $29.9 million, in 1998. -- $36 million adjusted to 2006 dollars.
F-4E $2.4 million, in 1978. -- $7.7 million adjusted to 2006 dollars. <-- Its far more than inflation driving up cost.

The USAF could buy the F-16E/F Block60 being purchased by the UAE.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 11, 2008 11:21 pm 
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Tim Jacobs wrote:
If you want an "out of the box" solution, how about license building the newest variant Flanker airframes, put on US engines, avionics and weapons... and fly away the most advanced fighter short of an F-22. You start with zero hours, have an advanced airframe and keep the "made in America" label" (well, assembled in America).


Su-27 is not that advanced. The thing first flew in 1977. There is no guaranty any American engine will fit in Su-27's engine bays. Routing of all flight management electrical and electronic cabling would have to change to accommodate American avionics. So its airframe is unlikely to be usable in the way you envision without major modification. The material specification, service procedures and maintenance requirements of the Su-27 would all be designed with no consideration for American practice, and would thus be wholly alien to USAF logistic structure. You have to go through the entire slew of weapons integration tests, weapon release tests, etc. The acclimation process would be equal to that of F-22 and would take years. It is also not clear how much tests the Russians actually did on the newest Flanker variant.

In any case, pride would never allow Americans to be seen as nothing more than a giant version of Venezuela when it comes to fighter acquisition.

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