Russ,
Let's use some calm, common sense here. Do you really believe that the Chinese, whose weapon systems are generally a generation or two behind, have suddenly leapfrogged and developed a missile that's beyond even our capabilities? Is it perhaps more likely that a missile of pedestrian capability has been announced in glowing terms as a propoganda measure? Consider, for a moment, the near hysterical reaction thus far. I've seen sensationalistic articles, such as this one, that proclaim the complete and total demise of the carrier, rendered obsolete by a simple Chinese announcement.
Consider the depth and quality of the article's reporting. For instance, it makes zero mention of the fact that carrier battle groups are protected by several Aegis ships which were designed specifically to deal with saturation attacks by hundreds of supersonic Soviet "carrier-killer" missiles. Instead, the article suggests that carriers are merely floating targets, totally defenseless.
However, even within this article, note this quote buried well towards the end:
Quote:
Questions remain over when — and if — China will perfect the technology; hitting a moving carrier is no mean feat, requiring state-of-the-art guidance systems, and some experts believe it will take China a decade or so to field a reliable threat.
This is the only sane sentence in the article. The meanest, baddest missile in the world is useless without accurate over-the-horizon (OTH) targeting, a capability that we have not yet been able to develop. The best we can do is, if (and that's a very hit or miss "if") we can identify a target area, we can launch missiles that will perform a search pattern to try to find a target within the general area. The Chinese, from perusing open source literature, have nothing even remotely approaching our OTH capabilities and ours aren't very good.
It is far more likely that the Chinese have developed some run of the mill missile and are using wildly exagerated claims about its capabililty to achieve their goals of reducing our carrier development and keeping us out "their" seas. In that respect, they appear to be succeeding!
I would also suggest, that the Navy is probably enthusiastically embracing the Chinese announcement since they will be able to use that fear to sell Congress on new, more expensive ships to counter the threat. Want a bigger budget? Play up the capabilities of your enemy!
In summary, you can take a stick and carve it into the shape of a missile and call it a carrier-killer but that doesn't make it one. As I stated before, the Navy should be aware of Chinese intentions and weapon development and take them seriously but this is not a game-changer.
It's up to people such as yourself (and it's clear from your various posts that you have a solid grasp of naval technology) to realistically evaluate this kind of reporting. Remember, journalists attempt to sensationalize everything they write. It's how they sell their work.
A better question to ask ourselves is why the Chinese are so focussed on keeping our carriers out of "their" seas? It's because they see the carrier as the only serious threat to them and they don't have a counter for it. They're trying to achieve by political and propoganda means what they can't achieve by technology. And again I'll say it, they're succeeding!
If you believe there's a more serious threat than what I've portrayed here, analyze it and tell me how and why it's a threat.
By the way, think about all the weapon systems that we've announced and described in glowing terms that have completely failed to come about. Just because the Chinese have announced a weapon system doesn't mean that it exists and will do what they claim. Remember all the Soviet ships and weapons from the Cold War that turned out to be far less effective than what they were claimed.
Enough of this, I've got to get back to my Mandarin lessons so I'll be ready for our upcoming surrender to the Chinese next year.