Why did the Central Powers ultimately lose the war?

[JWintjes]

By the French Army's own reckoning, there were around 30,000 executions a year for desertion. This does not speak to a unified home front.

One could never overestimate Werner's capacity to crudely exaggerate any perceived shortcomings in those he dislikes.

Well, we're talking about the French, aren't we?

Jorit

[Werner]

We're discussing the morale and mental state of the British civil population, and not a realistic appraisal by the cabinet or senior war leaders.

The Germans appeared to be able to appear off their costs or over British cities with immunity and kill indiscriminately.

[JWintjes]

Three hours' normal motorway driving is 7 days' marching. There were no PzKfW IVs or SdKfz 251s. A slow steam freight train carrying troops from Paris would embark, travel, disembark in less than a day. A defensive position can be reinforced far faster than an force attacking it can maneuvers.

You can use the train if the railway is clear. Which is not the case once Ypres falls. I don't know whether you have ever been in that area, but if you drive the motorway from Lille to Dunkirk these days you see the heights to your right in the distance and realize why Ypres and the area around and beyond it are so important.

Jorit

[JWintjes]

One can never underestimate Chuck's capacity to become fractious. The number is from the August publication "Wikipedia".

Which doesn't make it better. The French executed by far the most - with the caveat that we don't have any numbers for the Tsarist army - but probably less than 1000 throughout the whole war.

Wikipedia, you know, is *#&%$....

Jorit

[JWintjes]

Since Werner is unlikely to have a high opinion of my peaceable nature, I think Werner must be slightly confused about the rhetorical meaning of "can never underestimate"

Chuck = peacable nature ???????????



Jorit

[JWintjes]

We're discussing the morale and mental state of the British civil population, and not a realistic appraisal by the cabinet or senior war leaders.

The Germans appeared to be able to appear off their costs or over British cities with immunity and kill indiscriminately.

I think that is an eminently important point - the material value of shelling Scarborough was negligible at best, but the outrage it caused was certainly enormous. Also, Ingenohl may have had a chance to win a clear victory over the RN.

Jorit

[chuck]

The Germans appeared to be able to appear off their costs or over British cities with immunity and kill indiscriminately.

The French were able to actually land troops on British shores during the Napoleonic wars.

I don't think the real impact is significant. I think its effects were understood, and magnified for exploitation.

Also, Ingenohl may have had a chance to win a clear victory over the RN.

Jorit

But a minor one. Von Spee would win a much more impressive one, and even that had no real effect.

[JWintjes]

The Germans appeared to be able to appear off their costs or over British cities with immunity and kill indiscriminately.

The French were able to actually land troops on British shores during the Napoleonic wars.

I don't think the real impact is significant. I think its effects were understood, and magnified for exploitation.

Also, Ingenohl may have had a chance to win a clear victory over the RN.

Jorit

But a minor one. Von Spee would win a much more impressive one, and even that had no real effect.

Much more impressive?? Ingenohl had pretty much the whole HSF arrayed against the second BS and four of Beatty's battlecruisers. That was the chance to deliver a crippling blow to the Home Fleet.

Of course it is easy to say with hindsight that Ingenohl was too cautious. Often it is said that he had no idea about the true size of the force he might make contact with, and decided not to take a risk. Then again, war is about taking risks, and the fascinating thing about the HSF is that it could potentially kick England out of the war while being capable of sustaining considerable losses.

Jorit

[Werner]

Chuck, read Massie's Castles of Steel. He describes in some detail the panic the Scarborough Raid and the Zeppelin bombings had. They appear to have come close to causing collapse of the popular support for the government.

[chuck]

Much more impressive?? Ingenohl had pretty much the whole HSF arrayed against the second BS and four of Beatty's battlecruisers. That was the chance to deliver a crippling blow to the Home Fleet.

Of course it is easy to say with hindsight that Ingenohl was too cautious. Often it is said that he had no idea about the true size of the force he might make contact with, and decided not to take a risk. Then again, war is about taking risks, and the fascinating thing about the HSF is that it could potentially kick England out of the war while being capable of sustaining considerable losses.

Jorit

Sorry, I was confused. I was thinking of the light cruiser action only.

[Werner]

Of course it is easy to say with hindsight that Ingenohl was too cautious. Often it is said that he had no idea about the true size of the force he might make contact with, and decided not to take a risk. Then again, war is about taking risks, and the fascinating thing about the HSF is that it could potentially kick England out of the war while being capable of sustaining considerable losses.

Jorit

Remember, he was under orders from the Kaiser not to scratch his toys. The Kaiser only grudgingly allowed him some latitude in use of the battlecruisers.

[chuck]

This is one area where there is some potential for agreement between us.

I thought the Germans should have committed the High Sea fleet to seeking out the British and fighting a pitched battle after the western land offensive has clearly failed.

[JWintjes]

Of course it is easy to say with hindsight that Ingenohl was too cautious. Often it is said that he had no idea about the true size of the force he might make contact with, and decided not to take a risk. Then again, war is about taking risks, and the fascinating thing about the HSF is that it could potentially kick England out of the war while being capable of sustaining considerable losses.

Jorit

Remember, he was under orders from the Kaiser not to scratch his toys. The Kaiser only grudgingly allowed him some latitude in use of the battlecruisers.

Of course.

But you see, that's what I essentially mean - had the HSF been used more aggressively, there would probably have been quite some opportunities early in the war. Losing capital ships might have been bad for the Kaiser, but would have had little effect on the overall war effort. Losing a sizeable number of capital ships on the side of the RN however could have seriously crippled the British war effort.

Incidentally, a nice sideline to all this are various invasion scenarios one could come up with.

Jorit

[JWintjes]

This is one area where there is some potential for agreement between us.

I thought the Germans should have committed the High Sea fleet to seeking out the British and fighting a pitched battle after the western land offensive has clearly failed.

Uh - agreement indeed...



The end is nigh...



Jorit

[chuck]

Let's try a more plausible scenario:

What happens if the Germans did actually commit the critical 4 corps to the west and executed the full blown Schliffen plan? Would that have been enough to overwhelm the French, and would that cause the Russian rampage scenario haunting Moltke's sleep to actually materialize?

Would it help Germany if she invaded holland to ease her passage through Belgium?

What would happen if the Italians actually lived up to their obligations and declared war on France and UK, would that have been enough to tip the balance against the French in 1914?

Would Germany be better off if she provoked an incident and attacked France in 1905, when Russia was neck deep in war with Japan and much of what would later concentrate into the Grand fleet was still dispersed around the world?

[chuck]

I have my doubts about whether cavalry could have made any decisive difference in the west. What the Germans needed was 4 extra corps of mainly infantry to extend the main front line to the north to cover Paris during the swing to the south.

Perhaps I should clarify.

I can only agree that with that many extra infantrymen the battle of the Marne may well have taken a different turn. However, I can't see where these 4 corps would realistically have come from.

Jorit

Two from East Prussia guarding against the Russians, and two more pinned down by the French in the south, and were there in the first place due to some confusion about how Germany's untrustworthy Italian allies would act.

[JWintjes]

Let's try a more plausible scenario:

What happens if the Germans did actually commit the critical 4 corps to the west and executed the full blown Schliffen plan? Would that have been enough to overwhelm the French, and would that cause the Russian rampage scenario haunting Moltke's sleep to actually materialize?

Hm. Chances are that any Russian offensive would probably not have reached Berlin simply for logistical reasons. So gambling on the Russians simply running out of steam in Eastern Prussia might have been actually reasonable, if a really cruel call to make.

So there would have probably been some time at least.

However, I see another problem - let's assume that with 4 additional korps the Germans would have made the breakthrough at the Marne and actually got to Paris. The whole strategy rested on the assumption that capturing Paris would be the knock-out blow to the French war-effort.

But the 1870/71 war actually tells a different story - after the knock-out blow at Sedan the war went on and on. And even a couple of weeks more might have really endangered what was left of the Eastern front.

So in all, I think the real question is: would France have given in quickly enough for Russia to be warded off?

Would it help Germany if she invaded holland to ease her passage through Belgium?

Another interesting idea, but I guess that would have been a no-go - Holland was the single most important outlet (and inlet, if you want) for all sorts of goods for the Central Powers, right from the beginning of the war.

What would happen if the Italians actually lived up to their obligations and declared war on France and UK, would that have been enough to tip the balance against the French in 1914?

Now this I find very interesting indeed.

Italy siding with the Central Powers would, I think, have seriously hampered the French war effort by making the transfer of troops from Africa difficult at best, tying reserves to a Southern front and probably weakening the Western one considerably.

Jorit

[Chuck not logged in]

However, I see another problem - let's assume that with 4 additional korps the Germans would have made the breakthrough at the Marne and actually got to Paris. The whole strategy rested on the assumption that capturing Paris would be the knock-out blow to the French war-effort.

But the 1870/71 war actually tells a different story - after the knock-out blow at Sedan the war went on and on. And even a couple of weeks more might have really endangered what was left of the Eastern front.

So in all, I think the real question is: would France have given in quickly enough for Russia to be warded off?

That depends on what sort of relieve force the French can throw into the battle for Paris. If Paris is rapidly taken, France may not fall, but the Germans can still count the fact the the loss of Paris rail hub would greatly hamper the number of places where the French can stage a large scale counterattack. So the Germans can rely on many fewer troops to maintain an effective defense in the west, and pull the surplus troops to the east.

If Paris turns into a protracted siege while large scale combat continues elsewhere in France, then things would be more difficult for the Germans.

[JWintjes]

That depends on what sort of relieve force the French can throw into the battle for Paris. If Paris is rapidly taken, France may not fall, but the Germans can still count the fact the the loss of Paris rail hub would greatly hamper the number of places where the French can stage a large scale counterattack. So the Germans can rely on many fewer troops to maintain an effective defense in the west, and pull the surplus troops to the east.

If Paris turns into a protracted siege while large scale combat continues elsewhere in France, then things would be more difficult for the Germans.

Good point about the rail hub - hadn't thought about that.

Jorit

[Werner]

King Henry: Wessex, take 10,000 men and sack Geneva.
Wessex: But sire, the Swiss are our allies.
Henry: Yes, quite right. Get them to dress as Germans.