Does the USN need a new skyraider?

Naval History and the Technology associated with it.

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Werner
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Post by Werner »

Jack Ray wrote: This also goes for ground forces. Can you imagine some superannuated robot forklift going around with a USMC veteran sticker on its bumper? Part of being a citizen in any republic should be defending it as some sort of soldier, sailor, or pilot.
Sorry, Jack but time marches on. In a generation most of our combat machines will be as useful as The Three Hundred against the Marines at Twentynine Palms.

In our life we have gone from slide rules to GPS and 3GHz computers. It took days to compute orbital numbers for the moon shot that your PC can spit out in seconds. Communicating with the forces in Vietnam was a major struggle with large Tropospherical scatter antennae. Now, you can videoconference with someone in Iraq via the cell network.

Look at the rovers on Mars. Even the little one, Sojourner, continued it's mission for some time after the link to Earth died. A recent view from orbit puts it many meters from it's last position. That's 1980s science, too.

Resisting change in war is more than a fool's errand. It is deadly for the soldier and the state. Autonomous combat machines are coming, and sooner than we can imagine. What the consequences are for society needs to be worked out. It may be that in the next war there are only civilian casualties.
If an unfriendly power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war.

-- "A Nation at Risk" (1983)
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Post by Dustermaker »

Gerarddm wrote:Before Clinton bashing reaches terminal levels, it pays to recall that the military designed for a Soviet tank army surging through the Fulda Gap was and is not the military required in a post- Cold War world. It may also pay to recall that for much of the Clinton era Republicans were in charge of both houses of Congress, and his SecDef was a Republican ex-senator. I sincerely doubt you can lay a surfeit of Tomahawks at Bill Clinton's personal door.
By your logic we should be out of Iraq since Demacrats control congress......right?
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Post by Werner »

For the record, Clinton had three Secretaries of Defense:
  • Les Aspin (D) 1993 � 1994
  • William J. Perry (D) 1994 � 1997
  • William S. Cohen (R) 1997 � 2001
If you recall the events of his tenure, 1997 was not a very good year for his relations with Congress.
If an unfriendly power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war.

-- "A Nation at Risk" (1983)
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Post by Gerarddm »

Thanks Werner for refreshing my memory on the SecDefs. I think Les Aspin died of a heart attack, no? At any rate, Cohen was in office when Bosnia/Kosovo happened.

And Dustermaker, getting out of Iraq in an ideal world woud be as easy as going in now, wasn't it? I love the Bushs ( :censored_2: )- 41 goes into Somalia on the eve of Clinton taking over, and 43 leaves a mess for the next Prez. Jeez.
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Post by Werner »

Gerarddm wrote: And Dustermaker, getting out of Iraq in an ideal world woud be as easy as going in now, wasn't it? I love the Bushs- 41 goes into Somalia on the eve of Clinton taking over, and 43 leaves a mess for the next Prez. Jeez.
Does seem to run in the family, kind of like a "thing" for Hussein.

The ultimate mess for the next guy was how Carter handled Iran. We're still paying out on his mistakes in Iran and Korea.
If an unfriendly power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war.

-- "A Nation at Risk" (1983)
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Jack Ray
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Post by Jack Ray »

Werner wrote:
Jack Ray wrote: This also goes for ground forces. Can you imagine some superannuated robot forklift going around with a USMC veteran sticker on its bumper? Part of being a citizen in any republic should be defending it as some sort of soldier, sailor, or pilot.
Sorry, Jack but time marches on. In a generation most of our combat machines will be as useful as The Three Hundred against the Marines at Twentynine Palms.

In our life we have gone from slide rules to GPS and 3GHz computers. It took days to compute orbital numbers for the moon shot that your PC can spit out in seconds. Communicating with the forces in Vietnam was a major struggle with large Tropospherical scatter antennae. Now, you can videoconference with someone in Iraq via the cell network.

Look at the rovers on Mars. Even the little one, Sojourner, continued it's mission for some time after the link to Earth died. A recent view from orbit puts it many meters from it's last position. That's 1980s science, too.

Resisting change in war is more than a fool's errand. It is deadly for the soldier and the state. Autonomous combat machines are coming, and sooner than we can imagine. What the consequences are for society needs to be worked out. It may be that in the next war there are only civilian casualties.
I am all for change, but war machines--however sophisticated they may be--should be human operated with a human pulling the trigger and sitting in the commanders seat. In the same way I am ultimately for the exploration of space by manned spacecraft--after suitable preliminary reconnaissance by unmanned vehicles.

Society is being dumbed down enough as it is. If we take away the physical action and the thrill, we really are becoming cattle.

Jack
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Post by Andy G »

Jack Ray wrote: I am all for change, but war machines--however sophisticated they may be--should be human operated with a human pulling the trigger and sitting in the commanders seat.
I disagree. Telepresence is good enough today to place human senses in dangerous situations. UAV's pulling multi-tens of "g", weighing a few hundred kilograms, launched and recovered from a vessel considerably under 300m long and still able to conduct a meaningful combat mission are going to be the future.

Having people in the loop is the important thing - risking lives unnecessarily is nonsensical.

I've followed the progress of Spirit and Opportunity on Mars since they landed. Certainly they've accomplished less than a (properly equipped!) manned mission could have done: but there's no way you'd have got a manned mission even into Earth orbit for the same price tag.

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Post by Werner »

Andy G wrote: Having people in the loop is the important thing - risking lives unnecessarily is nonsensical.
The natural history of the combat machine implies strongly that as soon as the human is the weakest link - because his decision power cannot keep up with the speed of the engagement - he will be removed from the equation.

Look at AEgis. Basically they arm it and every other decision is automatic.
If an unfriendly power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war.

-- "A Nation at Risk" (1983)
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Post by Jack Ray »

My views do not reflect my assessment of whether technology will eventually be able to make a robotic armed force possible. It certainly will. My standpoint is essentially philosophical and moral.

By the way, I also believe in obligatory National Service.

Jack
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Post by Werner »

Jack Ray wrote:My views do not reflect my assessment of whether technology will eventually be able to make a robotic armed force possible. It certainly will. My standpoint is essentially philosophical and moral.

By the way, I also believe in obligatory National Service.

Jack
How do you feel about the Tomahawk missile? It has essentially replaced the A-6E Intruder as the long range fleet bomber.

That's not even my opinion. It's Norm Polmar's. I found that while I was looking for the putative flight deck cycle rate for the new British carriers in back issues of Proceedings. Polmar seems to have given up on future nuclear carriers.
If an unfriendly power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war.

-- "A Nation at Risk" (1983)
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Post by Jack Ray »

The Tomahawk is a PGM. It is a good weapon.

I am not against such things, they complement manned systems (and are launched by them).

Jack
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Post by Werner »

Jack Ray wrote:The Tomahawk is a PGM. It is a good weapon.

I am not against such things, they complement manned systems (and are launched by them).

Jack
Anything that has been launched at an enemy from hundreds of miles away, performs evasive and deceptive maneuvers, and hits a target qualifies to me, especially since the A-6 is no longer necessary to fulfill this mission.

Imagine the Vietnam War were the Tomahawk available. Would the A-6 and A-4 made all those trips to Hanoi, Haiphong and so on?
If an unfriendly power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war.

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Post by Jack Ray »

Remember the big difference made by the introduction of LGBs, especially at the Than Hoa and Paul Doumer bridges?

These things are a great benefit and have greatly reduced the number of weapons and aircraft needed to destroy high value, or other targets.

I say use them and improve them. I still feel the same about the complete replacement of the man in the field. I am not against progress, but do not believe that progress is a justification for leaving increasingly numerous humans with nothing to do (this applies across society, not just the military).

Jack
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Post by Werner »

Well, I'm not a big fan of artificial intelligence, especially since there is still a shortage of the genuine article, but we are deluding ourselves if we believe in the necessity of keeping the human "in the loop" in extraordinarily dangerous tasks like war. If an autonomous machine can be developed to fight and save lives, it will. It is merely evolution made plain to see.
If an unfriendly power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war.

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Post by Werner »

TheRegister.Co.UK wrote:USAF seeks control of aerial kill-bots
By Lewis Page
Published Wednesday 8th August 2007 13:39 GMT

Everyone knows about the current rise of the aerial killer robot. These machines are now in operation across the US military, and have already reaped a deadly harvest in Southwest Asia.

But the big deathbot battle isn't, in fact, in Iraq of Afghanistan; it's between the various branches of the US armed services, regarding who will be in charge of all the new flying slaughter machines and spy-eyes.

The United States Air Force (USAF) has been engaged for at least two years now (http://integrator.hanscom.af.mil/2007/J ... 007-17.htm) in an attempt to seize control of almost all US military drones and flying kill-bots. The USAF was arguably left at the starting line in this rapidly-growing death-tech arena, perhaps due to the natural reluctance of human pilots to see their jobs automated out of existence.

Both the US Navy and Marines have strong aviator subcultures, of course, and even the US Army has huge numbers of helicopter drivers, but only in the USAF is the aircrew dominance total.

USAF generals are often vocally sceptical about unmanned aircraft (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06/22 ... top_pilot/), and the USAF has so far failed to move forward with serious, heavy, jet-powered drone combat aircraft.

Even its prop-driven Predator-B/Reaper (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/05/10 ... ming_aiee/) hunter-killer, thus far the heftiest aerial death-droid in operation, must be handled remotely by a fully-qualified human pilot and sensor operator.

One should note, too, that the USAF has an active force of just nine (http://www.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?fsID=6405) Reapers, in comparison to ordinary fighter jets numbering in the thousands.

Contrast this philosophy with the US Army's plan for Warrior robo-planes (pdf brochure) (http://www.ga-asi.com/products/pdf/Sky_Warrior.pdf), which like the Reaper are based on the original Predator drone. Warriors are intended to land and take off autonomously, and can fly missions largely on autopilot. Human operators will confine themselves to targeting weapons, interpreting sensor data and selecting routes - they won't normally be pilots, as such.

Similarly, Scan Eagle recce drones used by the US Marines and Navy can now be (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/07/17 ... _fleshies/) autonomously handled in groups by intelligent software. Completely hands-off, they can be told to sweep a given area. They can be informed of an important target - for instance a suspicious vehicle - using only a cellphone/PDA, and move in without further input to gather video and follow the target covertly.

A single Marine operator with relatively basic skills can potentially handle at least three Scan Eagles at once; if USAF Predators or Reapers were being used this would call for six people minimum, at least three of them officers with wings on their chests.

Likewise, the US Navy has recently awarded a contract (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/08/02 ... tract_let/) for a full-sized drone demonstrator jet able to operate from carriers autonomously, and has already proven that Fire Scout (http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/05/24 ... flying_hk/) robo-copters can land themselves on ships underway at sea.

There is no guarantee of any quick move to robot carrier wings in future, and the Navy pilot community may be harder to kill off than the Army or Marine ones, but on the other hand full-on combat drones may be the only way for carriers to survive. Current and prospective short-ranged seagoing jets might require their mother ships to move within range of a dangerous new generation of ship-killing missiles. If it comes to a choice between carriers with robot air wings or no carriers at all, the naval aviation community will probably swallow their bitter medicine.

Given this explosion of interest across the US services in drone aircraft, the USAF has launched a crafty push to regain dominance. It has been suggesting since at least 2005 that it should take over all drones operating above 3,500 feet. The USAF says this could allow consolidation and rationalisation to take place, saving US taxpayers money overall. Rather than separate Navy, Marine, and Army surface commanders having their own drone forces, the air force would allocate kill-bots from a central fleet.

In many ways, this mirrors the historical conflict within armed forces bureaucracies worldwide over control of manned aircraft; first fixed-wing ones, then helicopters, now drones. Generally speaking, most countries have developed a separate air force; but it has been normal for this air force to feel it should focus on "air-centric" missions such as strategic bombing, of which it should be in sole charge.

Air support for the other services has often been neglected, allowing them to retain or re-establish air arms of their own. Traditional fixed-wing pilots' disdain for helicopters, too - a syndrome which persists to this day - has tended to leave a large proportion of military helicopters in the hands of land or sea services worldwide.

To any student of historical interservice squabbles, the present USAF drone power-grab appears not unlike the Royal Air Force's move to seize control of British military helicopters in the 1950s. The arbitrary USAF number of 3,500 feet sounds a little like the famous 4,000 pound limit on all-up weight, above which the RAF felt that Brit helicopters should pass to RAF ownership.

The end result of that squabble was that most of the UK's troop-carrying helicopters wound up in the RAF. The air force couldn't be bothered to assign serious resources to this mission, and as a result Britain is almost unbelievably poorly provided with military transport helicopters - to the point where troops sometimes die and operations are often cancelled or curtailed for lack of them.

By contrast, hundreds of incredibly expensive new Eurofighter jets are now being delivered: more, in fact, than the RAF can actually man up on current plans. A mere five per cent of the projected Eurofighter acquisition bill would suffice to buy 50 new Chinook helicopters, almost tripling the UK fleet.

Handing over control of helicopters to an organisation which basically doesn't like whirlybirds has proved disastrous for UK helicopter capability. RAF jet pilots, as one might expect, have at best neglected and at worst strangled the rotary-wing fleet since it came under their control.

There might be a lesson about drones in there somewhere. Of course, for those fearing the inevitable day when the malevolent murder machines turn on their human masters in a terrible orgy of automated slaughter, control of the killbot budget by human pilots may be seen as humanity's only hope.
If an unfriendly power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today, we might well have viewed it as an act of war.

-- "A Nation at Risk" (1983)
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Post by Guest »

Jack Ray wrote:My views do not reflect my assessment of whether technology will eventually be able to make a robotic armed force possible. It certainly will. My standpoint is essentially philosophical and moral.

By the way, I also believe in obligatory National Service.

Jack
Jack with all due respects I'm curious, why obligatory national Service.. Does this mean you support a Draft? Did you serve and if you did were you drafted?
I know very few veterans who were drafted that believe in Obligatory service.. I am one of them. Maybe when we run out of volunteers and a national emergancy is resulting from the lack of volunteers for our Services. Then we may need to draft again but otherwise it's really not needed and it will dumb down the services with reluctant recruits. How would you feel if one of your kids were drafted?
Just my viewpoint no argrument intended. It's not a fair system slanted to take advantage of the poor and unconnected youth in our Nation trust me I know.
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Post by Walt »

I'm sorry friends, That prior post was mine, I forgot to log in.. :thumbs_up_1:
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Post by richter111 »

Artificial Intelligence

Under which standard does one program artificial intelligence?

I know some people that if their standard was used, a TI 44 A would be overkill for programming. (for the younger crowd it was a 2 MB computer, that used a cassette tape to load the programs in. You could purchase a 16 MB upgrade pack if you wanted a HIGH powered computer with more memory than you would EVER need.)

Me personally, my level of artificial intelligence would need AT LEAST a Commodore 64 computer!

(and if you don't know that fine piece of hardware, look it up!)

Ric

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Jack Ray
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Post by Jack Ray »

Anonymous wrote:
Jack Ray wrote:My views do not reflect my assessment of whether technology will eventually be able to make a robotic armed force possible. It certainly will. My standpoint is essentially philosophical and moral.

By the way, I also believe in obligatory National Service.

Jack
Jack with all due respects I'm curious, why obligatory national Service.. Does this mean you support a Draft? Did you serve and if you did were you drafted?
I know very few veterans who were drafted that believe in Obligatory service.. I am one of them. Maybe when we run out of volunteers and a national emergancy is resulting from the lack of volunteers for our Services. Then we may need to draft again but otherwise it's really not needed and it will dumb down the services with reluctant recruits. How would you feel if one of your kids were drafted?
Just my viewpoint no argument intended. It's not a fair system slanted to take advantage of the poor and unconnected youth in our Nation trust me I know.
I volunteered via the ROTC and became an armor officer--during the 1980s I served 5 years on active and reserve duty. My family has a long tradition of service and it was one of those things that I needed to do.

My idea of national service is not restricted to the military and would not have college deferments. In the past, the system was abused--while the better off went to school, farmers and factory workers went to Vietnam. The old (1960s) system of deferments was instrumental in creating the new standard of needing Master's degrees as a prerequisite for many good jobs today. This is a huge irony when one considers that the GI Bill after WW2 made it possible for many veterans to go to college and raise the minimum bar to BA/BS level. Most of the 30 year old non-college professor Ph.Ds I have met in my career would never have even considered getting such a high degree if it hadn't been for draft-dodging by the privileged during Vietnam.

I understand your POV and agree--I am not for national service as a source of cannon fodder. National service for all Americans in my perfect world would help youth transition positively from adolescence to becoming active and productive citizens. It would also serve as one of the checks and balances requiring careful consideration before going to war--using conscripts for war should only take place in case of a real national emergency.

Jack
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Post by Seasick »

Doing Research:

The A-6F was canceled by Secretary Lehman @1987 in favor of the A-12 program.

Dick Cheney canceled the F-14D and F-14B upgrade after the A-12 had been canceled. The Super-Bug was proposed by McDonnell Douglas/Northrup as a stop gap program to supply aircraft until the emerging Joint strike fighter would reach production.

The Clinton administration actually considered starting a new F-14 upgrade program when delays were encountered with the F/A-18E/F, but the Navy didn't want it.

The 'Joint support airframe' to supply a tanker/cargo/AEW family was canceled.
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? Seasick?
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