USN in the Persian Gulf

[Ultimo Tiger]

I'm pretty sure if Iran did use a Nuclear weapon on Europe, with a matter of hours, Iran as a nation would ease to exist in any recognisable form.

Of course that's depending on if we would launch full retaliation for one bomb and if anyone would do it. If I was PM in the UK, it could be fired at Ukraine or somewhere miles from the UK and I'd still launch a full retaliatory strike to set an example that rouge nations will NOT be tolerated.

Of course we'd rather avoid Iran ever getting the bomb in the first place. I think blowing up nuclear sites is Isreal's speciality. If they are willing to commit alongside US & UK forces I reckon we could topple Iran's government quite quickly. Of course, dealing with the rest of Iran's population is the problem. How many will fight and how many won't? How many want us to go in and wipe out the Ayatollah's dictatorship?

[Werner]

I'm pretty sure if Iran did use a Nuclear weapon on Europe, with a matter of hours, Iran as a nation would ease to exist in any recognisable form?

Of course this is the hope and dream of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has written repeatedly of the supreme conflict between the West and Iran which will summon the "Hidden Imam" and begin the End Times, including the liberation of Jerusalem. He believes he is a principal instrument of this conflict and it will occur in his lifetime. Why would he fear an event for which he has already built a mosque in which he will welcome the Imam back to the world?

[Ultimo Tiger]

I don't think it's just his dream.

Of course if he wants to put his faith in religion instead of the bullets, shells, planes, bombs, gunsm ships and men who will be fighting (and dying) for his nation, that's his loss.

I'll put my faith in the big sticks of the USAF, RAF, RN & USN. I think I can say quite safely that carpet bombing will kill more of his men than a holy book of his will kill ours.

[Paul Peterson]

No body seems to have brought up the fact that Iran has three Kilo class submarines!

The U.S. would eventually be able to sink them all, but they may do a lot of damage before they go down. Remember the Falklands war, and how much of a headache three Argentine subs were to the Brtitish.

[Werner]

The USN could easily put several nuclear subs in the area, as well as a cover of P-3 aircraft. Diesel-electric boats in the vicinity of Iran would last a very short time indeed.

Even now, I bet there is one or more submarines detailed to observing them whenever they put to sea and report/shadow them throughout their operations. Moreover, unless they are manned by experienced ex-Soviet personnel, they are going to make every "rookie" mistake in the book.

[Werner]

I don't think it's just his dream.

Of course if he wants to put his faith in religion instead of the bullets, shells, planes, bombs, gunsm ships and men who will be fighting (and dying) for his nation, that's his loss.

I'll put my faith in the big sticks of the USAF, RAF, RN & USN. I think I can say quite safely that carpet bombing will kill more of his men than a holy book of his will kill ours.

That's the wager he's preparing to make. Of course, it seems like lunacy and it will result in a massacre, a bloodbath for the Iranians, but that, too is as it is written to be. It would only strengthen his hand -- while they wait for the hidden Imam to return he will get stronger the more victories we rack up.

Unless there is a popular uprising (the current US plan, by the way is to foment an insurrection), the "holy script" they have is immune to such details as victory and loss. The more chaos the better.

[Guest]

The bottom line is that there must be no war, whether or not more chaos achieves the ends of one government or the other. And it behoves the western powers to leave the region as soon as is reasonably and decently possible. There has been a two hundred year long history of western meddling in this region, either to steal a march on their rivals politicaly or strategically, or to exploits the assets of the region; the middle eastern powers must have their own self determination if we are ever to lay to rest their long standing resentment at western interference. And as for the current situation, well, if Alexander the Great had problems with insurgency in that region how did George the Somewhat More Mediocre ever think that he could prevail at all, and what does he think that war with Iran will achieve? The diplomatic machinery is all in place to avoid it, the Iranian leadership must surely know that they can't win it, commonsense must prevail. And as for the idea of religious fanaticism and lust for jihad, all I can add is that, in all of the Islamic countries which I have visited, the greatest danger was that they would(quite literally) kill you with kindness. In Pakistan when I was there you could not walk down the street without somebody wanting to have a chat and give you a cup of tea; my overwhelming impression of the Muslim world is that it is populated by people who are just trying to live their lives and get by on what they have. If you want to lead those sort of people to jihad you need to manipulate the truth so that it seems that the moral imperative lies with them in their struggle. If we but out of middle eastern affairs then they might be harder to fool.

[Werner]

The bottom line is that there must be no war, whether or not more chaos achieves the ends of one government or the other. And it behoves the western powers to leave the region as soon as is reasonably and decently possible. ... If we but out of middle eastern affairs then they might be harder to fool.

I might agree except the only thing keeping them from each other's throats is us. As soon as we lose interest in maintaining peace in the area there will be a series of highly disruptive and bloodthirsty regional wars which will both kill millions of innocent people and cut us off from a regular oil supply for decades.

We're going to have to remain as peacemaker and honest broker or Jihad Johnny is going to be all over his brothers. They only thing that has kept them from killing each other is they have been too busy killing us.

Remember, the Koran tells you how to comb your hair and how to wipe your bottom. Literally. (Three pebbles per B.M., handled with your right hand.) That kind of detail leaves many opportunities for one community to become outraged at another. The only people sure to lose are women and us.

[Gone Asiatic]

We need to ween ourselves off this region`s resources and let them determine their own......fate...the sooner the better.

Been there (many times) Done that, but didn`t buy any T-shirts, but I did purchase a very lovely Dalla and Khanjar
(will post pics on requests).

[Werner]

We need to ween ourselves off this region`s resources and let them determine their own......fate...the sooner the better.

Been there (many times) Done that, but didn`t buy any T-shirts, but I did purchase a very lovely Dalla and Khanjar
(will post pics on requests).

Were they the girls with the tee-shirts that read: "I went to Port Said and all I got was this lousy tee-shirt"?

[Guest]

The bottom line is that there must be no war, whether or not more chaos achieves the ends of one government or the other. And it behoves the western powers to leave the region as soon as is reasonably and decently possible. ... If we but out of middle eastern affairs then they might be harder to fool.

I might agree except the only thing keeping them from each other's throats is us. As soon as we lose interest in maintaining peace in the area there will be a series of highly disruptive and bloodthirsty regional wars which will both kill millions of innocent people and cut us off from a regular oil supply for decades.

We're going to have to remain as peacemaker and honest broker or Jihad Johnny is going to be all over his brothers. They only thing that has kept them from killing each other is they have been too busy killing us.

Remember, the Koran tells you how to comb your hair and how to wipe your bottom. Literally. (Three pebbles per B.M., handled with your right hand.) That kind of detail leaves many opportunities for one community to become outraged at another. The only people sure to lose are women and us.

Werner, please don't oil to your (American) ego. The World had existed before America came to power to become peacemaker (like you call it)and poeple had bit their throats as successful as today. It's you who believed you have wisdom how to rule the World but you are to arrogant to understand the paecemaker isn't only colt44 and American way of life not necessaryly suits everyone everywere. I live long enough to see
how America is loosing it's respect gained after WWII (overestimated in my opinion) and how many poeple were killed (should be said murdered) when America's Democracy was put on. Reading your discussion what should be done, who should be hit and who should be nuc, how to destabilise the country on the other end of the World in the name of your so called interests or seccurity , I'm terryfying. Is this the voice of average American?
You didn't signed any treaty concerning the way of war conduction (about civilians and private property protect) believing you are secured in America. Thinking this way you made the war with civilians your art of war. Civilian casualties?, doesn't matter, it is far away. Fifty innocent poeple or fifty thousant doesn't matter your interests must be seccured, who would care about 3 zeros. Orange agent or political assasination
it happens somewere in nowhere. Poland, Holland, Austria or Australia who cares. You must fight for your global interests and there are no rules.
Maybe you didn't noticed the times have changed, the Gun boats diplomacy is over. The times when 500 marines and two warships was enough to seccure your iterests in so called Western Hemispher is over, that one local war (in Iraq) is too much for you and you simply couldn't effort another one? America please get back from Heavens to the Earth. You are not World's Navel any more and the God seams to love you a bit less. Tensioning you muscles you look worse than working for your own. Leadership isn't given for ever. The World lived over
not one leading power.

I've had no intention to offend anyone. Just thoughts

Regards from Poland where the most of poeple don't like your missle defence system Miroslaw

[Werner]

Regards from Poland where the most of poeple don't like your missle defence system Miroslaw

Miroslaw: many of my dearest friends are from/in Poland. May I say (with respect) your view is by no means the standing opinion of the USA there, and it's likely to become more of a minority, because most of the visiting Poles are returning from America (the container rental for returnees is back-ordered for a year, not because they don't like America or it's policies anymore, but because the exchange rate is so favorable right now). They are better off in Poland with the cash they accumulated here. Nearly every Pole I speak to here in Chicago love the USA more than just about anything. They do think our internal politics is nuts, though.

Most of those I spoke to didn't understand the defense system (1) is primarily to defend Poland and Slovakia from the Iranian missiles, and is not there to protect France and Britain, and (2) the exchange of technology to Poland from the USA is stunning, and probably the real reason the Russians are upset. The companies being set up in Poland right now to build interceptor components will make Poland a major technical center of Europe.

It is my considered opinion (and those of several experts I have consulted) that the Iranian missiles are meant to threaten Europe politically, and would not be used against Israel because they are too inaccurate to hit any significant targets without also destroying many critical Islamic sites and shrines there. Besides, Israel has one of the most sophisticated ABM systems in the world. With that in mind, Iranian missiles only really threaten Eastern Europe, Russia, Iraq, Afghanistan, India and Pakistan.

America is not building interceptors to make Russia mad, or to be the world's policeman. We're doing it because we're the only power who can. A hundred and twenty-five years ago Britain would be doing something like this and taking similar political heat for doing so.

Still against the interceptor under these terms?

[Ultimo Tiger]

Those missiles tested yesterday can pnly reach Souther Europe can't they? I'd assume Poland was quite safe.

[Werner]

Tabriz, Iran to Lublin, Poland is 1,552Km, so Southeast Poland is well within reach of Iranian MRBMs posted in the Northwest of Iran

The range of the Shabib-3 is at least 1,600Km. Also, it is lunacy to think their missile development program has ended. North Korea has a further development of this missile which can reach the West Coast of the USA.

Also, I posited that the Shabib-3 was intended to offer a political threat to Europe. I would say it performs that task as delivered.

A half-dozen nuclear-tipped Shabib-3 missiles could sever Europe's lifeline of gas and oil from Russia. If this threat was made during a mid-winter crisis, I would say Europe would have no choice but to cave to Iranian demands, whatever they were, simply because Europe lacks the long-range non-nuclear resources to prevent the Iranians from performing the deed in the 1 hour notice interval between deployment of the Shabib-3 batteries and the launch of the missiles. It would probably take 3-4 days of political discussions simply to permit deployment of resources to begin the process of locating and destroying Iranian mobile missile batteries.

[Ultimo Tiger]

Hmmmmm you put it that way and it is damn scary.

But would Iran attack with nuclear weapons knowing that in return they themselvees are likely to be cast into the pages of history, the only remains being the odd burned out building and such after a massive return strike? I mean if they did what you'd said, I'd have no qualms about committing Genocide against them.

[Werner]

We have an interesting thread about this off-topic.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran is on record stating he believes he is instrumental in beginning the "End-Times" which will liberate Jerusalem. He believes a huge war between the West and Iran is foretold and is necessary to summon the "Hidden Imam" who is instrumental in the great battle between the unbelievers and Islam. He has even constructed a great mosque on the site he expects personally to greet the "Hidden Imam" when he arises from the well in which he is trapped.

In other words, a war with Europe is not only necessary but it's course is already recorded in scripture. Anyone familiar with Islam will understand the importance of this last phrase. What has been written cannot be changed. This religious preordination is a powerful force in the daily life of the faithful.

http://www.wsu.edu/~dee/SHIA/HIDDEN.HTM

[Guest]

The matter of your rockets was to be only for good by.

You see Werner.it's typical: Czech or Slovakia, what a difference or maybe Slovenia
You woud like defend Poland and Czech Republic. Why Does America love these two countries so much? Primaryly the missles were to be
installed in Finland but their Government was so wise to refuse. Would the missles defend us in such a case?
If we don't agree to instal them here you will like to defend Latvia or Lithuania. Bay the way all our countries are Iran's traditional enemy
and Iran will attack them instead Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Austria for example
Why we should believe your experts? They showed their ability in Iraq where were to be Talibans bases and chemical weapon and nothing was foud. Your experts had promised that if Hussain was removed Iraq would be better. We see what is going on: your democracy costs too much again and all the World got the hiccup because destabilisation in this region. Bravo!

Concerning exchange of technology you mean 50% of F16 permanently not flying because hundrets of drawbacks or all promised off-sets connected with contract worth of almost 4 billions $ and not kept by USA?

And finaly :my countrymen in USA love America because they are the guests there an this is matter of kindness to you. Now they love England and Ireland even more because they are closer and exchange rate between Zloty and Euro is much better and sallories are better while your currency lost about 50%

and finally:
YES, I'M STILL AGAINST ANY OF YOUR MILITARY PRESENCE IN MY COUNTRY!

Regards Miroslaw

[Werner]

Can you provide ANY evidence the interceptors (after the fall of the Soviet Union) were to be installed in Finland? This country is not "convenient" to shoot down anything! Russian, Iranian, American, doesn't matter.

Nobody in the USA would think of this. The idea of basing missiles a few hundred Km from St. Petersberg is out of the question on political grounds.

I humbly suggest you have been misled by propaganda

America does almost nothing in the world without a domestic political reason. Politicians are elected in terms of 2, 4 or 6 years, therefore they are always looking for votes. American Poles (citizens) are a huge voting bloc. So are Lithuanians and Jews and a number of other groups. That's why anything happens in America or in it's foreign policy.

[JWintjes]

Your experts had promised that if Hussain was removed Iraq would be better. We see what is going on: your democracy costs too much again and all the World got the hiccup because destabilisation in this region. Bravo!

Don't go down that road. It'll get nasty pretty soon.

Jorit

[Werner]

N.B. I just searched a few thousand documents at the Office of the Secretary of Defense and Joint Staff, and there are no hits on the word "Finland". Certainly nothing relating to deployment there.

You have been duped.

P.S., the war in Iraq is OVER. President Bush has already begun redeploying troops from there to Afghanistan. The real problem is our forces are too small for the promises we made since 1990.

If Iraq and Afghanistan slide back into chaos it will be because of decisions taken after the election here in the USA and the unwillingness of Europe to be involved in world affairs.

If you're going to post anymore on this site, might I ask that you register, provide a brief vitae and join the "Off Topic" group? Several of those dedicated to modeling only have already objected to this thread.