Official: Britain out of Airbus

[Werner]

Today, BAE sold it's share of Airbus to EADS for $US 3.53 billion.

Look for Airbus to begin scaling back and closing British plants and manufacturing operations soon. The French and German governments cannot countenance support of the British economy with their taxes. They will bring these plants home.

There is the possibility that some plants or operations will remain open temporarily provided Britain agrees to changes in the EU subsidies.

For it's part, BAE's board believes Airbus is not positioned properly for "the short and middle term", a statement which is certainly aimed at the foolish production of the A380 while essentially abandoning the balance of the market to Boeing, Embrair and Bombardier.

[Dave Wooley]

I guess with the end of BAEs participation in Air Bus the UK will find it difficult if not impossible to go it alone or enter into a new partnership and as such the UKs aero space industry will go the way of ship building , volume car production. and most other forms of volume manufacturing.
Dave Wooley

[Werner]

I guess with the end of BAEs participation in Air Bus the UK will find it difficult if not impossible to go it alone or enter into a new partnership and as such the UKs aero space industry will go the way of ship building , volume car production. and most other forms of volume manufacturing.
Dave Wooley

Not necessarily. If Boeing and the British Government are smart they will make arrangements similar to the ones Japan has made. That would keep Britain making assemblies and components of future Boeing aircraft.

Also, the regional jet market is a good deal more competitive. It would make sense for a British company to partner with one of the manufacturers like Embraer on joint production. Their aircraft compete with the lower half of the 737 line and 40-100 passenger regional aircraft. This will be one of the fastest growing segments in the future.

[Dave Wooley]

Teaming up with US manufactures may be an option but most of the development , engineering and plant is focused towards Airbus. No, British/ BAE participation in airline projects may well be at an end.
Dave Wooley

[Werner]

From the BBC

As I predicted, Airbus has sharply scaled back UK supplier contracts for the North Wales facility, no doubt the first steps to a phased closing of UK operations.

Don't feel too bad. The German operations are rumoured to be moving to Tolouse, making Airbus what it was always intended to be: A French company purchased largely with British and German capital.

For some of us, it is obvious no French policy exists to do anything but benefit France exclusively.

[Dave Wooley]

Werner I have visited this plant in North Wales and there is no way they can move or close down that plant at such a critical time for Airbus. It is the only wing making facility in the program and Airbus would have to compensate the British government to the tune of 1.5b. As for the A380 things do not look good and if they don�t come up with a formula that's going to placate customers soon then mass lay offs within the consortium are on the cards. Whether the problems associated with the A 380 have the potential to pull down the whole edifice only the future will tell.
Dave Wooley

[Werner]

My spies tell me the wing tooling will be moved to Asia as part of a bid to rescue the airplane.

Of course, any payment to Britain will occur years from now and represent a fraction of the total after the EU courts get done with it.

[Terry Pottle]

Don't feel too bad. The German operations are rumoured to be moving to Tolouse, making Airbus what it was always intended to be: A French company purchased largely with British and German capital.


Werner,

are you talking about the EADS, or the EU in general ??
sometimes it feels that way, just look at the recent history ot company takeovers.

Terry

[Werner]

Well all that Brussels-Strassbourg movement has me thinking about Persephone and the Underworld anyway.

[Dave Wooley]

My spies tell me the wing tooling will be moved to Asia as part of a bid to rescue the airplane.

Of course, any payment to Britain will occur years from now and represent a fraction of the total after the EU courts get done with it.

As I've said if Airbus was daft enough to contenplate moving the wing facility then they will have to train up 6000 people very quickly and that just aint going to happen . Airbus wings are not car body shells. Its not just the A380 wings that's manufactured at the North Wales plant it's the wings for the entire range . maybe over the next decade Airbus will move manufacture to France that's assuming of course there will be an Airbus consortium.
Dave Wooley

[Werner]

maybe over the next decade Airbus will move manufacture to France that's assuming of course there will be an Airbus consortium.
Dave Wooley

I reiterate: as a concession to the larger purchasers and their solidarity, some of the tooling from Wales and many of the subcontracts will be moved to Asia.

It appears there is a fundamental problem with the tooling in place right now, and the question is whether to invest in replacement jigs and tooling for the old plant or just make new plants elsewhere. Evidently the production wings do not fit the production fuselage, due to a version problem with the design software! The reason the EADS board did not say anything after the meeting last week is because of the catastrophic level of mismanagement which has resulted in this technical problem.

It should be noted substantial parts of every 747, including wing assemblies, are manufactured in Japan.

On another note, based on data from the prototype E380, the US FAA has decided to add between 3 and 5 minutes between an E380 and the next airplane to use a runway because the Airbus creates such extreme vortices in the flight path. In addition to the substantial restructure of the terminal facilities, this adds a lot of pressure on existing airports and their management. A 700 passenger 380 doubles the takeoff load for the airport as compared to a 747-800 with a similar passenger capacity.

As an aside, I predict EADS will wind up giving away the first fifty A380s to the current clients, and once this is known, Boeing will file an immense damages suit which they will ultimately win. The result will cost EADS the potential air tanker contract with the USAF and they will close their new facilities in North Carolina.

[Dave Wooley]

Werner read this extract from
Aviation Week

At the heart of the problem is complexity in the wiring harnesses for the aircraft, stemming from Airbus underestimating the amount of work needed to accommodate the airline's nearly custom-made, often lavish interior cabins. As a result, wiring bundles are now being installed after final assembly in Toulouse, rather than into structural elements earlier, creating a bottleneck. It is the same problem that caused a delay in A380 deliveries a year ago. Airbus still does not know on which A380 the assembly sequence, including wiring, will be performed as originally intended.

This is not the result of the wings not fitting the fusalarge. Were did you get that story?
Dave Wooley

[Werner]

A BAD FIT. Then of course there is the A380, which has now fallen at least a year behind schedule because of assembly-line glitches. Recent reports in the French press and by the Bloomberg news service have highlighted a key reason for these problems: Airbus upgraded design software at its assembly plant in Toulouse more quickly than at some of its other factories.

The result was that components from certain factories sometimes didn't exactly match the computer-generated design model that guides final assembly in Toulouse

Um, putting the best face on the problem.

GM had a similar problem with the Trans Sport crossover, in which part of the design was shorter then the other, leaving them with tooling for a car which was impossible to build.

[Werner]

Airbus now says it will not deliver the first A380 before October, 2007. Further, they expect to deliver only the one plane in 2007, instead of the nine planned. Delivery was scheduled for 2006.

They currently plan to deliver 13 planes in 2008 and 25 in 2009.

Airbus says the delays will wipe 5 billion Euros from it's profits over the next four years.

The delay triggers huge penalty payments from Airbus to it's clients, which in turn may trigger lawsuits from Boeing and the US Government, if the money comes from the French or German governments.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5405076.stm

[Dave Wooley]

Airbus now says it will not deliver the first A380 before October, 2007. Further, they expect to deliver only the one plane in 2007, instead of the nine planned. Delivery was scheduled for 2006.

They currently plan to deliver 13 planes in 2008 and 25 in 2009.

Airbus says the delays will wipe 5 billion Euros from it's profits over the next four years.

The delay triggers huge penalty payments from Airbus to it's clients, which in turn may trigger lawsuits from Boeing and the US Government, if the money comes from the French or German governments.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/5405076.stm

Sad but true. Further news today that although lay off are now unavoidable through out the consortium the A380 wings will continue to be manufactured in the Broughton {North Wales}plant
Dave Wooley

[Werner]

Trading of EADS was suspended today on the EuroNext Paris exchange when it's value fell more then is permitted under market rules.

German officials are irate over plans to consolidate construction at Toulouse or worse.

The German finance secretary is calling for Berlin to take a direct stake in Airbus to prevent the plant from being switched to cheaper sites in Russia, India and China.

The finance secretary correctly perceives that EADS' boss Streiff is blackmailing Germany.

With the German's striking back hard to save their huge Hamburg investment, and with Britain temporarily unrepresented on EADS Board, it remains to be seen if Britain will bear the brunt of Streiff's 30% cut.

Worse for the A380 is the company's attention is off the A350 where the future of Airbus really lays. Analysts are hinting that A380 problems have already set back the A350 by at least a year, to 2013.

It looks like the flight of stockholders from EADS will leave it in the hands of French and Russian government investors, unless someone convinces Merkel to buy the shares Daimler Chrysler is about to unload. Either way, Boeing's arguments about competition will be seen to be all too true.

- - - - - -
I personally think the A380 will be the EADS "Spruce Goose". I bet the total production run is five.

[abramsteve]

Good! Its ugly!!!!

Not that I care being a pure Naval modeler and everything....

[Dave Wooley]

Although I'm no fan of the A380 I think it's to big. But having good friends working in the North Wales plant I can understand their anxieties with the prospect of a delay in production having the knock on effect on their jobs. Add to that their families concerns over futures and that of the financial impact on the surrounding area.
We can all pontificate some with glee but at the end of the day it boils down to jobs and the welfare of the worker families . This could have been Boeing and I wonder what thoughts and sentiments would have been expressed if that were so.
Dave Wooley

[abramsteve]

Indeed, I should add that in all seriousness, for the good of the families whos livley hoods depend on the aircraft success, I truley wish the project and the company well.

[Werner]

This could have been Boeing and I wonder what thoughts and sentiments would have been expressed if that were so.
Dave Wooley

I remember aviation engineers selling pencils in the streets in the 1960s. More recently, the elimination of much of Grumman, Lockheed, Douglas, Northrup, Martin and a few others has made an occupation in the industry unattractive, although the recent reductions in force have been more through retirement than layoff.